While not replicating the curve exactly, the spot prices generally reflected the shape of the forward curve in December 2012. The event that significantly changed the shape of the PJM/ComEd forward curve was the Polar Vortex Winter of 2014. Just prior to 2014, the forward curve in December 2013 (Chart 2) showed an expectation for prices to be high at the start of the year (there was already a forecast for a cold January), and then the rest of the curve had the usual summer peaking shape.
The actual results of very high spot prices for an extended period of January-March influenced the shape of the future calendar year forward curves as observed in Chart 3 and to a lesser degree in Chart 4.
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