Now we want to examine the forward curves from 2019-2022 broken down by Peak and Off-Peak (See below – page 6) to see if the market is predicting something different than the current $10.50 spread. The results in Table 2 show that the forward peak/off-peak relationship out through 2022 is still in that $10.50 area. Though it is important to observe that the difference between the highest monthly price and lowest monthly price on the ATC curve for 2022 is about $1.00 per MWh flatter than the previous year.
With those observations, we cannot say with any certainty that the forward curves for PJM//ComEd are reflecting any changes in the peak and off-peak relationship because of electric cars or any
other reason. One possible reason is that PJM is certainly aware of the potential of electric cars and has been working on designing a specific solution for electric cars that may be outside the current auction market. We will continue to monitor both prices and regulatory developments as the rollout of electric vehicles continues.
Analyst – David Mousseau
Source – PJM, CME, Bloomberg, and Electric Vehicle Insider
