The Agency has come up with some very detailed analysis of the situation with plans and conclusions for COP21, which were outlined at a recent seminar. The main thrust of this plan is the historic US-China announcement, the agreement on EU targets for 2030, and the fact that developed and developing countries are coming forward voluntarily to submit their plans to reduce emissions while, in the background, the IEA believe that energy companies and investors are also getting involved.
At the start of the seminar, the audience was asked if it believed that a resolution would materialise out of COP21. I didn’t see any hands rise. Likewise, when members of the Energy Institute were asked if they believed that agreement would be made on preventing a 2 degree C rise, 63% said “No”, 29% were not sure, and 8% said “Yes”.
From its report, the IEA states that energy production and use account for two-thirds of greenhouse emissions and believes that the sector must cut emissions while, at the same time, boosting energy security and increasing access to support economic growth. The problem with this is that the conflict between security of supply and increased access is usually offset by increased cost as growth develops. However, if energy efficiency and conservation can be incorporated at the same time, the overall formula can work.
The emissions burden will change over time and from 2015 to 2040, there will be some stabilisation from the US, EU, Russia, China, and Japan while the two main developing countries, China and India will forge ahead and could well make up the lower emissions levels from the latter five.
To foresee the transition, ensuring that the world’s energy supply is low carbon by 2030, we shall need to see some serious pledges made and maintained under COP21. The Agency has a programme to monitor and manage such pledges to keep them on track to 2040. It’s looking to set conditions by which an early peak is achieved in global energyrelated emissions and the process by which progress is continually tracked and monitored.
The ultimate goal will be to achieve by 2030 an emissions level around 10% of that forecast for the INDC scenario. This would involve serious changes to the way in which all nations use energy. For all, energy efficiency would be the key driver followed by the reduction of coal-fired generation, which will be difficult for both China and India and the US too, but it is what is needed to make the difference required.
There is a very strong agenda for COP21. One hopes the outcome will have greater impact than earlier such events as Rio and Kyoto. Let’s see what comes out of it in December.
Written By- John Hall
